The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has released its first complete 2020 air passenger forecast has revealed the devastating news that airlines may transit 1.5 billion fewer international air travellers in 2020.
The numbers also show international seat capacity could dropping by almost three-quarters, with a resultant loss of at least $273 billion dollar loss compared to previously expected gross operating revenues. ICAO Secretary General Dr. Fang Liu offered this:
“In today’s updated analysis, the analytical timeframe was extended for another three months to December 2020, and more reliable air fare data was used to calculate revenue reduction.”
ICAO has been providing regularly updated analyses on the economic impact of COVID-19 on air transport since early February 2020, and is providing continuous guidance to air transport planners, regulators, and operators.
The projections are playing a role for countries now planning their COVID-19 recovery scenarios, given the importance of tourism, global supply chains, and many other air connectivity factors to local socio-economic prosperity. Alternative transportation is being considered, but the crushing blow to the airline industry means a likewise devastation for destinations and businesses.