Things Heat Up: Greece’s Coming Tourism  Apocalypse

Greece is still welcoming record numbers of tourists to many destinations on the mainland and the country’s islands. According to data from the European Travel Commission (ETC), Greece is in fourth place where European traveler choices are concerned. However, a huge problem looms over Greece and other Southern Europe destinations. Extreme weather due to El Nino and climate change is already driving tourists Northward. These and other major issues may soon transform Greece’s largest island into a shell of a tourist trap. 

Greece On the Burner

According to the new report of the European Travel Commission, Greece’s tourism beckons over 11% of those looking for “sun and sea” destinations for vacations. However, huge underlying problems face not only Greece, but also Spain, Italy, and even France. Drought, wildfires, water shortages, and misuse of resources threaten to ruin a dozen countries in Southern and Eastern Europe, with Greece being the most threatened. 

Last year Shengen News reported that global warming was already pushing tourists from many countries to seek alternative destinations Northward. In addition, many of the Southern countries propped up by massive Greece tourism, are already seeking alternative industries to support their GDP. 

The European Commission’s Joint Research Center revealed back then that rising temperatures are expected to reduce tourists’ number in summer by 10% at southern seaside areas. This shift will, in turn, increase demand for northern seasides by 5% or more, according to the numbers. The commission’s press release at the time read like a Greece tourism horror story. 

“According to the projections, the overall impact on European tourism demand is expected to be positive, with a projected rise of 1.58 per cent for the highest warming scenario (4°C), but the aggregated results hide a high diversity across regions. There’s a clear north-south pattern, with tourism demand gains in central and northern Europe and lower demand in the south.”

Identity Will Go First

For Greece, an even more devastating situation is on the horizon if the country loses this many tourists. Greeks are already the poorest nation in Europe having been passed by the Bulgarians some months ago. Here on Crete, hotels run by TUI and other conglomerates cannot even hire Greeks to work for wages driven down by these budget-minded companies. 

Workers from Pakistan and Egypt are already being welcomed to work at these seaside resorts in the tens of thousands. Meanwhile, another huge factor is the so-called “brain drain” (human capital flight in economic terms) sending some of the most energetic and brightest of Greeks abroad. Even as far back as 2014, the General Confederation of Greek Workers (GSEE) reported almost 40% of highly qualified Greeks were living and working outside the country. And the situation grows much worse. In the villages here in Crete, there are few inhabitants compared to a decade or two ago. And most of the people in those villages are over 40 or 50. 

The short version in all this is that Greece is disintegrating from the inside, while outside factors hasten the country’s decline. Critical to this downward spiral is the fact that most Greeks have lost any hope for the future of their country. Add to this the minimization of the Greece tourism product, global warming effects,and a government that hasn’t the slightest intention of planning past selling off Greek assets – and before the end of the decade many Greek destinations will be in ruins. At least, this seems to be where things are headed. 

At Fault? Mediocrity, Greed, the Usual Suspects

Greek entrepreneurs continue their unchecked plans for expansion of all-inclusive resorts to attract more customers via TUI and other large agents. The lure of money up front has snared even the biggest and brightest among Greece’s hospitality moguls. Chop 10% of their guests, and continue the downward spiral of their revenue per available room (RevPar), and most will be out of business in a sea of debt. 

I know this is a gloomy prediction, but I’ve been reporting on the coming disaster for years. Few, if any, seem to be paying attention. Our team continuously reports on problems that only grow worse due to this lack of attention/planning. In my view, the big investors in Greece intend to turn Crete into a giant battery to supply Greece and Central Europe with wind and solar energy. This is something that is being planned, as I discussed here. Now factor in how few tourists will come to see a horizon filled with wind turbines and thousands of dead birds beneath them. The picture should be complete now, for those astute enough to pay attention.