- Boeing forecasts nearly 44,000 new aeroplanes needed by 2043
- Passenger and cargo fleet to double
- Single-aisle planes dominate future deliveries
Boeing, signalling a strong recovery in air travel, projects that carriers will need nearly 44,000 new commercial aeroplanes by 2043—a 3% increase in aeroplane deliveries over the next two decades. As the 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) reveals, single-aisle planes will represent 76% of these deliveries, driven by the sustained demand from emerging markets and the burgeoning global single-aisle market.
Soaring Demand and Fleet Expansion
The aviation sector has bounced back robustly after the pandemic, seeing a steady increase in air traffic that aligns with Boeing’s forecasts from two decades ago. Passenger air traffic is expected to rise by an average of 4.7% annually from 2023 to 2043. “We are witnessing a resilient era in aviation, despite ongoing supply chain and global challenges,” stated Brad McMullen, senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing at Boeing.
CMO Forecast Highlights for 2043
- The global commercial fleet will grow by 3.2% annually, outpaced by the increase in air traffic as airlines optimize load factors and flight hours.
- The air cargo fleet is set to expand by two-thirds, supporting a 4.1% annual growth in air cargo traffic.
- Global airline fares remain comparable to 20 years ago, even as consumer prices have doubled, reflecting the aviation industry’s adaptability and efficiency.
Key Growth Regions and Aircraft Types
- Passenger traffic in South Asia will see the highest increase at 7.4%, followed by Southeast Asia at 7.2% and Africa at 6.4%.
- Eurasia will lead in aeroplane deliveries (22% of the total), followed by North America and China at 20% each.
- By 2043, single-aisle airplanes will make up 71% of the total fleet, and 33,380 new deliveries will enhance short—to medium-haul routes.
- The global widebody fleet will also more than double, making up 44% of the Middle East’s fleet.
Rising Demand for Aviation Services
As airlines ramp up to meet growing passenger numbers, the demand for maintenance, modification, and efficient digital solutions is set to expand. Boeing projects a $4.4 trillion market for commercial services. Additionally, the industry will need nearly 2.4 million new personnel, including pilots, maintenance technicians, and cabin crew, to support this growth.
Boeing has issued this annual forecast since 1961, making the CMO the longest-running and most comprehensive industry analysis. The latest insights can be accessed at boeing.com/cmo.
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