- The International Energy Agency has warned that global energy markets have reached a critical turning point after the conflict in the Middle East triggered the largest disruption in oil supply in modern history, forcing governments to release strategic reserves.
- The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has sharply reduced production and transport from Gulf countries, cutting millions of barrels per day from the market and creating immediate pressure on prices, inflation expectations, and financial stability.
- Oil briefly exceeded the symbolic level of $100 per barrel, despite a coordinated decision by 32 countries to release emergency reserves, the largest intervention since the oil crises of the 1970s.
- The supply reduction affects key producers, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar. Alternative production from other countries is insufficient to fully offset the loss.
- Rising energy prices are expected to affect transport, aviation, and tourism costs worldwide, increasing uncertainty for travel demand in 2026 if the disruption continues.
IEA Warns of Historic Disruption in Oil Supply
The executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, has warned that global energy markets are entering a critical phase, as the war in the Middle East continues to disrupt oil production and transport on a scale not seen for decades.
The warning came one day after the IEA recommended that member countries coordinate a release of strategic oil reserves to stabilize the market, following a sharp reduction in supply caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy routes.
According to the agency’s latest report, the current situation represents the largest disturbance in oil supply in modern history, with production in the Gulf region reduced by millions of barrels per day and maritime transport severely restricted.
Before the conflict, approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products passed daily through the Strait of Hormuz.
Today, those flows have almost disappeared, creating immediate pressure on global markets.
Prices Rise Despite Record Release of Strategic Reserves
Oil prices reacted quickly to the supply shock, briefly exceeding the symbolic level of 100 dollars per barrel during trading in Asian markets on the thirteenth day of the conflict.
Later in the morning, Brent crude rose by more than five percent to around 96 dollars, after having crossed the 100-dollar threshold earlier. In comparison, U.S. WTI crude increased by more than four percent to above 91 dollars per barrel.
The rise continued despite the decision by thirty-two countries, including the United States, to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest coordinated intervention ever recorded.
The measure was intended to prevent a repeat of the severe oil shocks of the 1970s. Yet, the IEA report indicates that the scale of the disruption may still exceed the capacity of emergency reserves to stabilize the market.
Gulf Production Falls as Hormuz Blockade Continues
According to the agency’s estimates, crude oil production is currently reduced by about 8 million barrels per day, with an additional 2 million barrels per day in refined products due to disruptions to Gulf exports.
Significant supply declines are reported in:
- Saudi Arabia
- United Arab Emirates
- Kuwait
- Iraq
- Qatar
Although some increase in output is expected from other producers, including Kazakhstan and Russia, the IEA notes that these additional volumes will only partially offset the losses from the Middle East.
The agency therefore expects global supply to remain below normal levels for at least the coming months, keeping prices under upward pressure.
Energy Costs Could Affect Transport and Tourism
Higher oil prices have immediate consequences for the transport sector, particularly aviation, shipping, and road travel, where fuel costs account for a major share of operating expenses.
For tourism markets, prolonged instability in energy prices often leads to:
- higher airfares
- increased package holiday prices
- pressure on airline profitability
- slower growth in travel demand
The current situation has already raised concerns in financial markets, as rising energy costs could increase inflation and place additional strain on public debt, especially in countries with high borrowing needs.
If the disruption in the Middle East continues, the impact may extend beyond energy markets, affecting the broader global economy and the pace of tourism recovery beyond 2026.
