Santorini Alert: Can We Trust the Science or the Officials? 

What if the Santorini situation becomes one of those rearview mirror events the geniuses in charge are flawless in analyzing after things go violently wrong? Take the earthquake swarms offshore of the volcanic island. The tremors have prompted a state of emergency, but many volcanologists and geologists are urging calm. Calm. Let’s look at a few reasons for alarm instead of minimizing events that might upend the Eastern Mediterranean. 

Suppose we look at the “calm” that was in place months, weeks, and days before a magnitude 6.0 earthquake destroyed people’s lives and properties in and around Arkalochori in central Crete – Well. In that case, Santorini locals evacuating to steadier ground seems much more reasonable than assuming ongoing earthquake swarms off an island are just growing pains. Thera, or Santorini as it is called today, once produced the most destructive volcanic event in human recollection. Let me quote a report from HAL Science on the Arkalochori earthquake to help make my point. 

The 27 September 2021 M5.9 event was preceded by a sequence of foreshocks that started to gain attention on 4 June 2021, when an event of magnitude M = 4.6 occurred. In fact, microseismic activity around Arkalochori had been recorded about one year before the mainshock. Thus, the Mw = 5.9 27 September 2021, Arkalochori event occurred as a culmination of the foreshock sequence.

The main event in central Crete occurred as the “culmination of the foreshock sequence.” We think about how surprising it was for the residents of the Minoa Pediada of Crete when their houses rattled to pieces. We reported on preshocks that the seismic experts did not seem so alarmed about months before the significant event. Another post-apocalyptic report was generated after the devastating quake, which told us the causes after the fact. Please understand that the Arkolochori event was not preceded by earthquake swarms in the thousands over days. The graphic below reveals the foreshocks and aftershocks related to the onshore Arkalochori event. Readers should also know that no alarms or warnings of earthquake swarms were issued before the event. 

Let’s also reference what the president of Greece’s Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization (OASP), Efthymios Lekkas, says about the current Santorini situation. The distinguished scientists say the seismic swarm is still evolving. Lekkas pointed out three most likely scenarios of how it might evolve (source Volcano Discovery):

If this sounds like the babblings of someone who just does not know, you are in the same boat as me. Returning to the current situation, we find that the earthquake swarm northeast of the island of Santorini continues and has been intensifying, with more than 2000 quakes recorded in the past 48 hours (graphic above). Simultaneously, the latest satellite-based radar measurements of the surface of the Santorini island group show that some inflation has affected the volcanic complex since the start of the seismic crisis that began some days ago. You may be asking the question, “Why is this significant?” Well, my American countrymen and an extreme case in point is the gigantic bulb of magma that burst like a balloon from hell out of Mt. St. Helens active stratovolcano in Oregon back in 1980. Some “experts” in Greece are announcing a “minor” ground uplift along the whole Santorini island group, which they say “may” indicate volcanic unrest. 

Still, one cannot help but be concerned when reading a study published in the AGU from October 2022 told of a growing magma chamber beneath the Kolumbo submarine volcano that experts predicted would cause an eruption in the near (in geological terms) future. The report summarized the situation with the growing magma chamber like this: 

The chamber coincides with the termination point of the recent earthquake swarms and may be a missing link between a deeper melt reservoir and the high-temperature hydrothermal system venting at the crater floor. The chamber poses a serious hazard as it could produce a highly explosive, tsunamigenic eruption in the near future. 

Finally, a February 2020 report on an 184-page study, nicknamed “Talio,” revealed that the Greek government has an emergency response and immediate and short-term impact management plan for any volcanic activity which might occur at Santorini. (see the “Enceladus” sub-plan here)The plan supposedly could respond to the same eruption that ended the Minoan civilisation in 1620 BCE! Given what we’ve learned of the Greek government’s inadequacy in all such emergencies, I expect a lot more planning, with politicians and some scientists crossing their fingers. Meanwhile, the constantly lethargic Greek officials declared a state of emergency at Santorini due to the seismic activity, which has seen almost 8000 earthquakes since 26 January 2025, including four quakes above magnitude 5 within the past 12 hours, and more than 120 tremors of magnitudes between 4 and 5. All I can say is that I am now discussing with my partner and wife whether to put in place a plan for evacuating to the south of Crete or her mom’s apartment in Bucharest. The sea is 200 meters from our house.