Several days ago, Dutch earthquake researcher Frank Hoogerbeets caused some controversy when he predicted that a tsunami would strike the Mediterranean basin at some point in the near future. Hoogerbeets’ assertions came after a 5.3 magnitude earthquake offshore of Southwestern Crete. Hoogerbeets warned that a tsunami from a coming more significant event would imperil Egypt’s shores. Despite efforts to discredit him, his predictions may bear closer scrutiny.
While some experts and authorities think such seismic events are a severe threat, the National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG) issued a report telling citizens there is nothing to worry about. In addition, the vice-chairman of UNESCO’s International Tsunami Early Warning Committee (IOC Tsunami), Amr Hamouda, said recent beach closings were a result of changing currents and wind conditions and that the actions by Egyptian officials had nothing to do with tsunamis or the Crete earthquake.
However, Hamouda did not consider that Hoogerbeets’ prediction was not based on the event off Crete this past week but on a more significant event to come. The UNESCO official pointed out that events with magnitude 7.0 or greater generally create tsunamis. However, Hoogerbeets was referring to a coming event of this magnitude.
Scientists have made significant headway in predicting high-magnitude quakes by measuring the precursory-scale-increase phenomenon. These models factor precursor earthquake clustering as an indicator of a forthcoming major earthquake. Here on Crete, warnings of catastrophic quakes and other events have been noted throughout history. And where tsunamis are concerned, the eruption of Thera in about 1620 BCE probably produced the most significant and most widespread tsunami damage in human history. Before this eruption, precursor, main, and aftershocks rocked the island and ruined the ancient Minoan Civilization.
It’s significant to note that in the past day or so, the Mediterranean region has been the only volatile geo-seismic region without substantial quakes. The image from the USGS below above tectonic activity worldwide. The most recent major earthquake to affect Crete was the magnitude 6+ 2021 Arkalochori earthquake, which caused hundreds of aftershocks. Here is what the head of the NRIAG Taha Rabeh said about the researcher and software developer @ssgeos, an outfit that a research institute that monitors geometry between celestial bodies related to seismic activity. His work involves factoring in the effects of lunar phases and planetary alignments as contributing factors in major events. But the following dismissal by a supposed scientist, seems to show that all data is not admissible.
“He is not a scientist (Hoogerbeets), but he is an astrologer, and he always likes trends. He is not an astronomer or a geologist as some claim.”
For the record, astrology involves divinatory practices, recognized as pseudoscientific since the 18th century. Or, your local palm reader or dating best practices gipsy, in other words. However, even though UNESCO and other Earth experts would like to sluff off a prediction by a genius math guy as hokus pokus, Hoogerbeets has made some meaningful observations. The “officials” also seem to have misled the public, claiming Hoogerbeets predicted an event to come within hours or days. Here is a share on “X” here the researcher explains.
For those unfamiliar, the 365 AD quake lifted the entire West end of Crete island 9 meters above sea level, leaving the port of Falasarna (and others) high, dry, and destroyed. For me, it seems fair to suggest that Crete and the greater region is long overdue for such a dramatic event. So, in the wide world of geophysical activity, the entire Med did not shake or quiver at all. The rest of the world, including the rim of fire, shuddered normally and released stored plate movement energy. I suggest we watch closely the next few days and weeks. I mean, just so things geologists have never been able to predict do not hit us unawares.
