- Olive oil production in Crete for the 2026/2027 season is expected to rebound significantly from last year’s historic lows, though regional yields will vary due to weather patterns during flowering.
- While rainfall after a long dry spell helped trees recover, late spring rains (April–May) hindered fruit set in some areas.
- The market remains “frozen,” with producer prices for extra virgin olive oil (3 acidity) falling to approximately €3.80 per kg.
After a disastrous 2025/2026 season characterized by historic lows in output due to severe drought, the olive oil sector in Crete is looking toward the 2026/2027 period with cautious optimism. According to reports from AgroTypos, production is expected to show significant recovery due to high rainfall levels that have helped revitalize the island’s olive groves.
However, the improved volume is being overshadowed by a “frozen” market and falling producer prices, leaving farmers anxious about the economic viability of the upcoming harvest.
The primary driver of the expected recovery is the return of rainfall to the island after a prolonged drought. The trees, which suffered immensely in previous years, have managed to recover and exhibit good flowering.
However, the weather pattern has not been uniform. Rainfall during the flowering period in certain regions affected fruit set (carpodeisia), leading to variations in production estimates across different areas of Crete. While the general outlook is for a “moderate to good” harvest, it is not expected to be a record-breaking “vendange” year.
Market Frozen as Prices Dip
Despite the agronomic improvements, the economic mood is somber. Trade on the island—and indeed across Greece—is described as stagnant.
The producer price for extra virgin olive oil (3-grade acidity) in Crete has slipped below the €4.00 mark, currently hovering around €3.80 per kilo. This drop has sparked concern among producers who fear that the lack of commercial interest may lead to quality degradation, especially as the memory of last year’s shortages fades.
Priamos Ieronymakis, olive grower and Specialized Advisor for the Primary Sector of the Region of Crete, told AgroTypos that while the quantity is up, the battle is now for quality and fair pricing.
“This year’s production will be increased and will have nothing to do with last year, which was a catastrophic year,” Ieronymakis said, adding that the Region of Crete has already submitted a file to the Ministry of Rural Development and Food (YPAAΤ) documenting the drought damages, particularly in eastern areas.
Ieronymakis highlighted several structural threats to the sector:
- Unfair competition: He criticized EU policies regarding imports from third countries, specifically Tunisia. “In Tunisia, the producer is paid €3 to €3.50 per kilo… This does not apply to Greece, where we have a high cost of living,” he argued, calling for tariffs to protect European production.
- “Hellenization” of oils: He raised serious concerns about the blending of foreign oils sold as Greek, calling for strict controls across the supply chain.
- Water management: He stressed the urgent need for water management projects, citing studies for dams and irrigation networks totaling €500 million that need to commence immediately.
Manolis Zervakis, President of the Mochou Agricultural Cooperative in Heraklion, described the production as “better than last year but not what we expected.” He noted that the population of the olive fruit fly (daco) has increased this year. Fortunately, the first sprays were completed on Thursday, July 2.
“The producers and cooperatives cannot sell the product,” Zervakis said, expressing fear that unsold stock from the previous low-production year could be downgraded in quality.
The War on Olive Oil and CAP Funding
The AgroTypos report also touches upon the political narrative regarding olive oil and inflation. Producers dispute the government and media narrative from the previous high-price period, which blamed olive oil for high inflation. Industry representatives argue that the average family spends roughly €300 annually on olive oil—a manageable sum compared to other expenses—and that this rhetoric unfairly pushed consumers toward cheaper, lower-quality seed oils.
Looking forward, there are calls for a shift in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Producers are requesting that funding move away from simple investment plans (like machinery) and toward the standardization and promotion of olive oil to help it compete in the global market.
