- Global jet fuel averages have hit $197.83, with European prices climbing to $203.61—the highest since the Iran conflict began on February 28.
- ACI Europe warns of a “systemic shortage” within three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable.
- Lufthansa and Qantas are slashing capacity and raising surcharges, while Delta expects fuel expenses to increase by $2 billion this year.
- Low-cost carriers like T’way Air are already implementing unpaid leave for staff to survive the margin squeeze.
- Greek tourism faces a precarious summer as refineries struggle with weak elasticity and disrupted supply chains.
The Cost of a Closed Strait
The arithmetic of aviation has turned predatory. Since the outbreak of hostilities in Iran this February, the price of kerosene has decoupled from standard crude benchmarks, nearly doubling in a matter of weeks. While Brent crude has seen significant increases, jet fuel has outpaced it, driven by a combination of tight refining margins and the physical blockage of the world’s most vital energy artery: the Strait of Hormuz.
In the hubs of Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp, fuel stocks have plummeted to a six-year low. For an industry that operates on razor-thin margins, the jump from $85 to over $200 per barrel is a hurdle.
- Asia & Oceania: $217.34 / barrel
- Middle East: $207.00 / barrel
- Europe: $203.61 / barrel
- Global Average: $197.83 / barrel
- Refining Margin Peak: ~$120.00 (up from $20 in February)
Warnings from the Cockpit
The rhetoric from airline boardrooms has shifted from optimism to survival. Carsten Spohr of Lufthansa has been blunt, noting that kerosene reserves are at “alarming levels.” The consequence is a direct hit on passengers: Air France-KLM has already signaled fare hikes of up to 50 euros per round trip on long-haul flights.
Further East, the impact is even more immediate. Qantas has revised its entire 2026 outlook, bracing for a fuel bill that could top $3.3 billion AUD. For low-cost carriers, the situation is existential. When airlines like T’way begin asking staff to take unpaid leave, it signals that the cushion of post-pandemic recovery has officially deflated.
The most pressing concern for the Mediterranean is the timeline. Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency has suggested that Europe may have only a six-week buffer of jet fuel. With the Greek tourist season already active, the timing couldn’t be worse. If the flow through Hormuz does not stabilize, the “systemic shortage” predicted by ACI Europe will move from a forecast to a reality just as the summer heat peaks.
