- Former German foreign minister Joschka Fischer addressed the ITB Berlin 2026 convention.
- He warned that the era of a stable rules-based global order is ending.
- Tourism must prepare for conflicts, disasters, and geopolitical disruption.
- Travelers will continue to travel—but not into dangerous environments.
- The industry should integrate risk prevention and crisis response into travel management.
A Changing World Tourism Cannot Ignore
Tourism may be one of the world’s most resilient industries. Still, according to former German foreign minister Joschka Fischer, it cannot afford to ignore the profound geopolitical shift reshaping the global order.
Speaking during a keynote at the ITB Berlin 2026 Convention, Fischer argued that the era defined by a predictable, rules-based international system is fading. In its place, he said, a new landscape dominated by geopolitical power competition is emerging.
“The rules of the world are now the rules of power,” Fischer explained, pointing to the growing influence of the United States and China, with India potentially emerging as another major pole in global politics.
For tourism leaders, this transformation requires a deeper level of strategic awareness. Fischer suggested that the industry should move beyond simple market forecasting and become more proactive—perhaps even acting as an informal diplomatic bridge between regions.
Travel Will Continue—But Risk Has Limits
Despite the uncertainty surrounding global politics, Fischer emphasized that human mobility will not disappear. People will continue to travel.
But they will also make increasingly cautious decisions about where they go.
“People will not stop travelling,” Fischer told the audience. “But they will not pay to risk their lives in the room of a luxury hotel.”
The comment referenced the escalating conflict involving Iran, where drone strikes have reportedly targeted locations in the Gulf region.
Fischer said the current conflict between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other did not come as a surprise to him.
“I expected it,” he said, noting that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent visit to Washington was a clear signal that military action was approaching.
Instability Could Reshape the Region
Drawing on his own diplomatic experience—including his involvement in past negotiations with Iran—Fischer also raised concerns about the country’s long-term stability.
Iran’s internal divisions, he warned, could lead to deeper instability if the current political structure collapses. The country contains multiple ethnic and social groups with longstanding tensions, making the possibility of internal conflict difficult to rule out.
Such a scenario would not remain confined within Iran’s borders. It could spill across the region, creating lasting instability throughout the Gulf states, an area deeply interconnected with global aviation and tourism networks.
Tourism Must Become Better at Crisis Management
For Fischer, the key lesson for the tourism industry is not to retreat—but to prepare. Tourism companies, airlines, tour operators, and destinations must incorporate crisis awareness and risk management directly into their operational planning.
He pointed to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Thailand as a stark example of how both tourism operators and governments can be caught off guard.
At the time, Fischer was serving as Germany’s foreign minister. He recalled that even diplomatic missions struggled to respond quickly because many embassy staff were away on holiday during the Christmas period.
The result was a slower emergency response when thousands of travelers needed assistance. For today’s travel industry, Fischer argued, the lesson is clear: global mobility requires permanent readiness for unexpected events.
In a world where geopolitical tension, natural disasters, and crises are likely to remain part of the landscape, tourism’s challenge is not to avoid risk entirely—but to learn how to navigate it.
