SEVITEL: Lower Olive Oil Prices Expected in Greece

Consumers can anticipate a welcomed shift in olive oil prices, as this year’s harvest will outperform 2023’s output. Grocery shelves should soon carry olive oil at more accessible prices, owing to the anticipated production boost between 220,000 and 230,000 tons, according to George Oikonomou, General Manager of the Association of Greek Olive Oil Standardization Industries, SEVITEL.

Although customers will not fully appreciate the benefits of the improved crop until the first quarter of next year, price reductions are not far off.

Experts in the field forecast a dip in producer prices, citing almost twice the previous year’s yield. Last year, prices for producers rose above €10 per litre, consequently reflected in consumer prices. With production costs anticipated to normalize, households may again favour Greek olive oil over cheaper alternatives.

Changing habits are not unique to Greece. Similar trends mark prices and consumer choices in Spain and Italy, where consumption dropped 18-20%. The price surge and evolving dietary preferences have significantly influenced consumer behaviour.

“Market players on the ground in Greece suggest a potential production of 230,000 metric tonnes, up from last season’s 130,000. Turkey is expected to produce 260,000 to 270,000 metric tonnes, compared to last season’s 120,000 or so, while Tunisia could reach as high as 280,000 to 290,000 metric tonnes, up from last season’s 210,000 to 230,000,” said Kyle Holland, an analyst at Expana, cited by The Telegraph.

Efforts are underway to educate consumers on the health benefits of olive oil, amplifying its intrinsic value. Rigorous standards are being maintained to thwart adulteration and ensure that only branded and standardized products reach consumers. This increased awareness will empower consumers to make informed choices, enhancing their confidence in the product.

As supply stabilizes, Spain’s leading olive oil-producing region, Andalusia, is poised for a remarkable output of one million metric tons this season, a 77% surge from last year. Gary Lewis of KTC Edibles forecasts a potential 40-50% price reduction in the UK, aligning with increased availability.

This welcome change will likely manifest in consumer markets by the beginning of 2025, once the harvest finishes and production moves forward, bringing olive oil prices back to their late 2022 levels.