Climate Change Leading to Olive Oil Shortage

Persistent droughts and climate change have devastated the production of extra virgin olive oil, the Mediterranean area’s beloved “liquid gold,” causing an unprecedented crisis. The renowned Mediterranean diet relies on this culinary staple, but its record-breaking price has sent the business into chaos and fueled an upsurge in criminal activity.

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Greece will face a significant deficit since it cannot fulfil its local demand and export commitments for its world-renowned olive oil. There will soon be a worldwide scarcity, and this sad truth is reminiscent of the situation in Spain, the leading producer in the world.

Top Olive Oil Production by Country (Tons)

In the second part of the 2023–24 harvest year, which ended in September, the leading agricultural organization in Spain has warned about the possibility of an olive oil shortage. Cooperativas Agro-Alimentarias cites statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. The estimated olive oil supply for the upcoming crop is 560,000 metric tons—not enough to satisfy local and export demand.

Spain has cut olive output by 30–50%, resulting in a precipitous decline from the typical 1.3 million metric tons, despite the fact that it normally accounts for 40% of the world’s olive harvest. Prolonged heat waves and relentless droughts have wiped out the country’s crops, sending prices soaring by an unprecedented 112% since 2022, according to reports from the sector.

In a sad turn of events, the International Monetary Fund has revealed that the price of olive oil has skyrocketed, doubling in only two years and reaching an astonishing $10,000 per metric ton. This is because of the devastating droughts that have hit the Mediterranean region.

Current Olive Oil Prices vs. 2021-22

In March 2024, the European Environment Agency (EEA) released a stark warning in a breakthrough regional study of climate-related risks. They urged European nations to prepare for “catastrophic” repercussions as the climate crisis intensifies and impacts their economy in every way this century. The increasing frequency of high heat events and changes in precipitation patterns pose a severe danger to food production, according to the EEA’s research, especially in southern Europe.

Analysts warn that markets will likely be on high alert for unexpected price spikes in the coming months due to dwindling olive oil reserves, even though the recent rally in olive oil prices has cooled slightly owing to beneficial rains in March and April and an uptick in production estimates for Spain’s olive harvest.