Despite forecasts indicating that the worldwide olive oil industry will increase from its 2023 valuation of $14.64 billion to a whopping $19.77 billion by 2032, up from $15.11 billion in 2024, Crete’s olive cultivation faces a grim future due to climate change, drought, and lack of government support.
Within the next two decades, the Mediterranean region might be forced to import olive oil from emerging producers like China, Morocco, Tunisia, and others. This alarming scenario is painted by experts who warn that without adequate subsidies and infrastructure, thousands of Cretan olive growers will be compelled to abandon their groves, unable to bear the escalating production costs.
The National Interprofessional Olive Oil Organization estimates that Greece has around 300,000 olive tree owners, divided into three categories: professional farmers, inheritors of olive groves, and small-scale producers for personal consumption. Only the first and third categories are likely to survive, as the second group faces the dilemma of selling, renting, or abandoning their lands.
Napoleon Loukadakis, an expert, cautions that due to climate change, the Mediterranean region, including Greece, might eventually need to import olive oil from third countries like northern China (Neakriti report in Greek), which is rapidly emerging as a power in the olive oil sector. Other countries like Turkey, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, and Israel are also advancing in innovations and production.
Despite the current “golden” prices of olive oil, Loukadakis emphasizes that these high prices won’t last forever. The lack of incentives and subsidies, coupled with the pressing challenges of drought and climate change, pose a severe threat to the age-old tradition of olive cultivation in Crete and the broader Mediterranean region.
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Olive cultivation is not confined to the island of Crete; it is a national treasure deeply woven into the fabric of Greek culture and heritage. Olive oil holds a revered status, transcending mere agricultural commodity. The preservation of historic olive groves is a paramount concern, as these verdant landscapes are not mere crops yielding a product but natural sanctuaries steeped in history, deserving of environmental protection.
Unlike countries like Spain and Portugal, where olive cultivation is a relatively recent endeavour, Greece boasts ancient olive groves that have stood as silent witnesses to the passage of time. Their gnarled trunks and twisted branches bear testimony to a rich cultural legacy. These hallowed groves demand reverence and safeguarding, not merely as agricultural assets but as living emblems of a nation’s identity and heritage.