Olive oil prices 2024: The market dynamics from the end of 2023 continue into the beginning of 2024, resulting in record-high valuations for refined and extra virgin olive oils.
The crisis goes beyond the outrageous costs of olive oil to the very survival of olive trees, which are essential in reducing the effects of the global climate problem. The Mediterranean’s blossoming trees will provide an early look at future crop potential in spring 2024, particularly in Spain, which may ease some market tensions.
In addition to limited inventory reserves, the Mediterranean region—which produces most of the olive oil used worldwide—is still experiencing a protracted drought, especially in Spain. Prices are being kept high by persistent demand from export markets, even in the face of a minor decline in local consumption.
Olive Oil Prices 2024: January Status
A recent olive oil market report by Certified Origins lists Greek olive oil’s surprising surge at +84.7% from the price for the same time in 2023. Greek olive oil was more affordable than Italian olive oil. However, in 2024, the prices will maintain their upward momentum.
- Italy: 9.56 €/l → + 5.5% from previous month, + 58.3% from price for the same time 2023
- Spain: 9.09 €/l → + 5% over the previous month, + 83% over the same period in price 2023
- Greece: 9.25 €/l → +3% from the previous month, +84.7% from the price for the same time in 2023
- Tunisia: 7.88 €/l → +3% from the previous month, +53.7% versus price same period 2023
Apostolos Rautopoulos, the president of EEKE (Union of Consumer Workers of Greece), predicted that olive oil would rise to thirty euros a litre. Based on existing data, this estimate is made; a producer in Laconia is already selling olive oil for 9.38 euros. Rautopoulos also drew attention to the current costs of branded extra virgin olive oil, mentioning prices at grocery chains that range from €15.64 to €18.80.
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Greece’s new olive oil production is anticipated to decrease from the previous year by at least 50%. A litre on the island of Crete is expected to cost 8.40 euros, with several producers considering buying oil this year. It is improbable that Crete would produce more olive oil than 30,000 tons as predicted.
You can see the olive oil price trends on YCharts and compare the most recent data with historic olive oil prices recorded as early as 2019.
According to estimates (.*pdf) from European Union officials, the nine producing nations within the 27-member union will produce 1.5 million tons of olive oil during the 2023–2024 crop year. Olive oil prices will remain high due to the current market scarcity and another harvest that is below average:
EU olive oil production in 2023/24 is likely to suffer from negative weather events which took place over the whole growing cycle. Notably, ES, PT and EL suffered from an extremely dry and hot spring, while IT benefitted from rainfall. Episodes of rain shortly before and during summer did not likely improve the situation in ES and PT, as they were followed by new heatwaves. Instead, such weather pattern is likely to help olive fly and pest development. As a result, ES and PT are expected not to reach their full production potential even if their recovery is likely to be only around 20% compared to last year. EL is to be in off-year of the alternate bearing cycle, with an expected production drop of around 20%. Only IT production could grow as it, contrarily to EL, should be in on-year.
SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK for EU agricultural markets in 2023 and 2024 © European Union, 2023
Since the start of the season last year, Greece has seen a surge in illegal activities and thefts of olive oil due to the extremes of the season.
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