A new analysis from the METEO team of the National Observatory of Athens, released on November 10, highlights an issue that travelers to Greece — especially those visiting Crete — should be aware of this season: while recent rains have improved surface moisture across much of the country, the deeper soil layers in Crete remain unusually dry. It is not a dramatic warning, but it is a meaningful one.
After a colder and wetter October, and with the early November rain episodes, soil moisture across Greece increased significantly compared to the beginning of autumn. The improvement is clear — at least on the surface. According to METEO, the upper soil layer (7–28 cm), which reacts quickly to rainfall, now shows moisture surplus in almost all regions of the country. The exception is most of Crete, where the surface recovered less than elsewhere.
The deeper soil layer (28–100 cm), the one that matters most for long-term environmental balance, responded differently. Because this layer takes much longer to replenish, METEO reports that Crete remains in conditions of mild to strong drought (levels 1–4), while regions such as Attica, Evia, Eastern Macedonia, and several Aegean islands show mild to moderate drought (levels 1–2). The rest of Greece shows clear improvement.
To understand what these indicators mean, METEO explains that the drought index measures how current soil moisture compares to the long-term seasonal normal (1991–2020). A negative value means conditions are drier than usual. Even if the landscape appears green after rainfall, what lies deeper can tell a very different story. Because groundwater reserves support vegetation, agriculture, ecosystem stability, and water availability months later, the moisture in deeper soil layers is far more important than a few rainy days.
And this is where the analysis becomes significant for visitors.
For tourists, this is not a warning about safety or disrupted plans. It serves as a reminder that the island’s natural systems operate on a delicate annual cycle. Winter rains refill Crete’s underground reserves, feeding springs, rivers, forests, olive groves, vineyards, and rural communities well into spring and summer. When deeper layers remain dry despite seasonal rainfall, it means Crete enters the year with a deficit, not a reset.
Travelers who enjoy hiking, nature exploration, or countryside drives may notice small signs, such as lower-than-usual river flow, dry gorges earlier in the season, or more fragile vegetation in forested areas. The landscape may appear green at first glance, but underground, the island is still recovering from months of heat and insufficient rainfall. Farmers feel it. Rural communities feel it. And, over time, visitors will see it reflected in the natural environment they come to enjoy.
Because the analysis relies on the ERA5-Land model rather than widespread in-person measurements, METEO notes that small local differences may occur. But the island-wide trend is clear, consistent, and worth acknowledging.
This is not a crisis. It is context — and context matters. Understanding these patterns helps tourists appreciate the island more deeply, and it reinforces a truth residents already know: Mediterranean islands depend heavily on winter rainfall to support the landscapes people travel thousands of kilometers to see.
In simple terms, Greece is overall entering winter in better condition than it was in early autumn suggested. But Crete and parts of the Aegean remain in a deeper drought that will take more time to recover. For visitors, nothing changes about your holiday — except the insight that the beauty around you depends on seasonal rhythms that are now shifting quietly beneath your feet.