If anyone believed Greece still has a “winter low season,” INSETE’s latest Airdata Tracker has arrived to gently tap them on the shoulder, hand them a 53-page PDF, and whisper: “Sweetheart, wake up.”
Airlines have scheduled 6.33 million international seats for the winter months of November 2025 through March 2026 — an 11.8% increase compared to last winter. Yes, nearly 12%. In winter. In Greece. Imagine explaining this to someone in the 1990s.
And if capacity reflects airline optimism, bookings reflect reality — and reality is also up, by 6.8%.
This means two things:
- Airlines expect a busy winter.
- Passengers agree.
Where the Growth Comes From: The Nations Arriving in Droves
The monthly breakdown looks like a slow crescendo in a Cretan lyra solo:
- November: +11.2%
- December: +9.9%
- January: +11.0%
- February: +11.7%
- March: +14.8%
March, with 1.418 million seats, has become the unofficial “new April.” Airlines are treating spring as if it begins sometime in mid-February.
Germany — the eternal backbone of Greek tourism — offers 898,693 seats (+9.8%), although their actual bookings crawl at +2.1%, suggesting German discipline now includes waiting until the last minute.
The United Kingdom balances this out nicely:
- 533,571 seats (+4.0%)
- 14.4% booking increase
Translation: “We are coming whether it rains or not.”
France posts a healthy +11% in seats and +7.5% in bookings — respectable, polite, very French.
Italy continues its “we are basically the same people” approach with +5.4% in capacity and +6.6% in bookings.
And then there is the Netherlands. Ah, the Netherlands.
- +2.6% in seats
- +71.6% in bookings
This is not growth. This is a phenomenon.
It is as if every Dutch household opened Google Flights, saw “Crete from €39,” and collectively shouted: “Pack your crocs!”
Even the USA appears eager, posting +8.2% in seats and +14.6% in bookings — impressive for a country that considers anything under a 9-hour flight “nearby.”
How Greece Compares With Its Rivals
If you are wondering how the competition is faring:
- Greece: +6.8%
- Spain: +6.5%
- Italy: +6.1%
- Portugal: –9.6%
Portugal’s decline is Greece’s gain.
And Spain, for once, is looking at Greece with envy — a refreshing change after two decades of being the teacher’s pet of Mediterranean tourism.
A. Total Winter Capacity – INSETE Airdata Tracker (Winter 2025/26)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Scheduled Seats (Nov–Mar) | 6,326,734 |
| % Change vs Winter 2024/25 | +11.8% |
| Total Booking Growth (YoY at end of September) | +6.8% |
B. Monthly Seat Distribution (Scheduled Seats)
| Month | Seats | Share of Season | % Change vs 24/25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| November | 1,357,189 | 21.5% | +11.2% |
| December | 1,293,607 | 20.4% | +9.9% |
| January | 1,158,242 | 18.3% | +11.0% |
| February | 1,099,421 | 17.4% | +11.7% |
| March | 1,418,275 | 22.4% | +14.8% |
| Total | 6,326,734 | 100% | +11.8% |
C. Key Markets – Scheduled Capacity (Seats)
| Country | Seats | % Δ YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | 898,693 | +9.8% |
| United Kingdom | 533,571 | +4.0% |
| Italy | 524,365 | +5.4% |
| France | 267,690 | +11.0% |
| Netherlands | 210,962 | +2.6% |
| USA | 97,606 | +8.2% |
D. Key Markets – Booking Growth (End of September)
| Country | % Δ Bookings YoY |
|---|---|
| Germany | +2.1% |
| United Kingdom | +14.4% |
| USA | +14.6% |
| France | +7.5% |
| Italy | +6.6% |
| Netherlands | +71.6% |
| Total Seats / Overall Bookings | +6.8% |
E. Competitive Comparison (Bookings YoY)
| Destination | % Δ Bookings YoY |
|---|---|
| Greece | +6.8% |
| Spain | +6.5% |
| Italy | +6.1% |
| Portugal | –9.6% |
Is This Sustainable? Yes — But Only If Greece Stops Sabotaging Itself
The numbers are beautiful. But numbers are also brutally honest.
More winter seats mean nothing if:
- regional airports cannot handle winter traffic,
- half the island closes on November 1,
- walking paths vanish into mud,
- or hotels pretend the season does not exist.
But if Greece keeps expanding winter infrastructure — transport, year-round hotels, hiking safety, cultural programming — then this could become the new normal: A Mediterranean country that actually lives in all twelve months.
The data tells us passengers want it.
Airlines want it.
Local economies desperately need it.
The only question left is whether Greece will do the work to match the demand.