Crete could produce nearly twice as much olive oil this year, potentially reaching 100,000 tonnes, according to estimates from the Region of Crete.
That sounds like excellent news, until you talk to the people actually producing it.
Regional Deputy Governor for Agricultural Economy Stavros Tzedakis said the island’s production could climb from around 57,000 tonnes last year to as much as 100,000 tonnes this season.
“The weather has helped so far,” Tzedakis said, adding that quality expectations are also positive. Olive fruit fly infestations have remained relatively limited so far.
The figures and comments were reported by Creta Live, following a Heraklion event on the cultural and health value of Cretan olive oil and its role in promoting sales and olive tourism.
Almost double the oil — if the olives stay on the trees
However, a rather large “if” hangs over that optimistic forecast.
Olive millers are already reporting signs of fruit drop, which could reduce the final harvest.
Prodromos Afthonidis, president of the Heraklion Olive Millers Association, said this year’s production is certainly better than last year’s following two difficult years for Crete’s olive trees.
But he warned that fruit drop is already pressuring producers and that the situation could worsen depending on the weather.
He advised farmers to wait a little longer before harvesting and let the olives complete their cycle, though, as he pointed out, waiting becomes difficult when the fruit is already falling.
Farmers are struggling despite the bigger harvest
And then comes the less cheerful part.
Afthonidis described Crete’s producers as being in extremely difficult financial circumstances, arguing that the state provides little meaningful support for olive cultivation.
He also said 15 olive mills in Heraklion prefecture are not expected to open this season, out of roughly 200.
For the mills, the problem is brutally simple: without viable farmers, there is no viable olive industry.
€4 a kilo isn’t enough
Olive oil prices are another major concern.
Afthonidis hopes prices could rise above €4 per kilo, depending on quality.
But according to Nikos Michelakis, former director of the Chania Olive Institute and now scientific adviser to SEDIK, even €4 doesn’t cover production costs.
That leaves farmers facing a particularly ugly equation: they may have more olives this year, but producing and harvesting them can still be economically unattractive.
Michelakis warned that olive cultivation has reached a critical point, with abandonment increasing because production costs are too high and prices remain inadequate.
The problem isn’t just production
Michelakis also pointed to one of Crete’s longstanding weaknesses: fragmented supply, particularly in the bulk olive oil market.
He argues that producers need to organize and consolidate supply to gain greater negotiating power and better prices.
He also stressed the importance of standardization and building a stronger “Crete” brand around the island’s olive oil.
That matters beyond agriculture. Cretan olive oil is already part of the island’s food identity and increasingly part of its tourism story, from tastings and mills to olive-growing experiences.